"Prophecy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks." So said author Mark Twain. Sticking their necks out are British institutions, Lloyd’s Register, QinetiQ and the University of Strathclyde in their new report, Global Marine Trends 2030.

Demographics will ensure shipping will be prosperous come the year 2030, the study suggests.

The report sees seaborne trade increasing from 9bn tonnes annually to between 19-24bn tonnes.

2030 could usher in a world where China would own a quarter of the merchant fleet, growing from 15% in 2010 to 19 to 24% in 2030 rivalling Greece and the rest of the European countries.

Almost half of offshore oil is taken from the deepest waters and there are 100 times as many offshore wind platforms, while the tanker fleet grows the slowest of all the major ship types.

The team used three scenarios to model the future. These scenarios, using three key drivers – population growth, economic development and demand for resources – describe what maritime trade, sea power and the offshore energy sectors could look like in 2030.

For the purposes of brevity we will take you through the highlights using the ‘Status Quo’ scenario, where the world will continue its current growth momentum with some booms and busts over the next twenty years.

Looking at urbanization, a key driver for shipping, between 2010 and 2030, Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and most notably Myanmar catch the eye in terms of the growing percentage of citizens living in cities.

Meanwhile, the four  ...   More>>